The 2025 WNBA Expansion Draft is set to take place Friday night at 6:30 p.m. ET, which means we have officially reached the "fun part" of the WNBA offseason.
The newly-minted Golden State Valkyries will now have a chance to fill out 12 spots on its roster by selecting a single player from each existing WNBA team. The Valkyries cannot just choose any player, however-- each team gets to pick six players that are off-limits.
Let's get this out of the way: The Fever will protect Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston. Those are not the players we're talking about here.
Fever fans should be talking about whom of the nine unprotected players that may end up packing their bags. The Fever are seemingly one piece away from contending for a title, and losing the wrong piece could set the organization even farther back.
But before speculating on who could leave, we must first speculate on who will stay.
Who will the Fever protect?
As mentioned before, the Fever will protect the trio of Clark, Mitchell and Boston.
Mitchell is an interesting case. She enters free agency this offseason, and her performance in 2024 should force every team in the league to bid on her services. However, new Fever head coach Stephanie White has made it abundantly clear that she intends to build her contender around the "Big 3" of Clark, Mitchell, and Boston, so it is safe to assume that Indiana will make a concerted effort to bring her back.
That leaves three spots on the protected list. It's a safe bet that Indiana will protect its final two starters, NaLyssa Smith and Lexie Hull, and one bench player. This is where it gets tricky, and where the simulation begins.
Here are three players that the Indiana Fever would hate to lose.
1. NaLyssa Smith
Yep. I'm breaking my own rules already.
Smith was a starter in 2024, albeit a down year for the former #2 overall pick. Although it was stated before that she should be on the protected list, her recent actions may leave her off of it.
After the Fever were eliminated from the playoffs by the Connecticut Sun, Smith removed the team's handle from her Instagram bio. This created quite the stir, and that was only the beginning.
Stephanie White, during the same interview that she mentioned Clark, Mitchell, and Boston as her core to build around, failed to mention Smith even a single time.
Then, in early December, Smith posted a cryptic message on her Instagram story, which seemed to imply that she felt unappreciated and wanted to leave her situation. This has been refuted by her brother, in the tweet below, but Smith is yet to comment on it herself.
If the relationship has soured, the Fever have an interesting dilemma. Smith is under contract until the end of next season, but if she wants out of Indy there is a very real possibility that Fever executives could choose to leave her unprotected.
This is the worst route they could possibly take.
If Smith wants out, the organization could respect her wishes and part ways. But if she is left unprotected, she will undoubtedly be taken by the Valkyries. Smith has massive trade value, and the Fever need to take advantage of that if the 24-year-old wants out.
2. Temi Fagbenle
Fagbenle had an injury-ridden campaign in 2024, but she is going to be a critical piece next season in one way or another.
Revisiting the Smith situation, let's assume Smith truly does want out. If the Fever do the smart thing, they will protect her and use her as trade bait to catch a bigger fish this offseason (maybe the wing Indiana needs?). That leaves the Fever with one solid option in the post besides Boston: Fagbenle.
In this hypothetical scenario where Fagbenle is left off the list, the Indiana front office probably takes a gamble and decides the injury to the 6-foot-4 center is too risky to bet on. Fagbenle would be a great pickup for Golden State. When she's healthy, she fills it up in the ways she needs to.
With Fagbenle gone and Smith traded in this scenario, that leaves Boston to run a small-ball set with four guards and either Katie Lou Samuelson or Damiris Dantas to relieve her off the bench. Samuelson played some good minutes in 2024 in Fagbenle's absence, and she has the ability to stretch the floor at times. But post defense is a question mark with her, especially against elite bigs like Breanna Stewart and Brittney Griner.
Dantas showed some promise as an offensive threat in the post, but even if she can expand her role and become the big-minutes role player the Fever would need her to be the post game would be too thin. At least with Fagbenle, White has the option to keep two of them on the floor at all times against teams with a strong interior presence.
The trio of Boston, Fagbenle, and Dantas is needed in order for the Fever to see success out of the gate.
3. Katie Lou Samuelson
Although she may not be the answer in the post, Samuelson would be a pretty bad loss for the Fever off the bench.
Samuelson has shown that she can score, and with an expanded role she may be able to score at a higher clip. That, in addition to Indiana's already concerning wing situation, put Samuelson on the "it would suck to lose her" list.
And to her credit, Samuelson can be effective in the post. She's more of a slasher, but she has shown to have good footwork. At her best, she's a three-level scorer.
Maybe this is an unfair entry. With the congestion at the small forward and power forward postitions, Samuelson struggled to find a larger role in the offense. She has the skill, and she also has the basketball IQ that probably warrants a bigger role.
She probably won't find that in Indianapolis... but Indiana probably won't find a better role player at the wing position who is willing to take a back seat, making her one of the three players the Fever should think long and hard about.